Beyond Roulette
J. Doyne Farmer, once known for outsmarting roulette wheels with physics, now applies complexity science to the global economy. In Making Sense of Chaos, he argues that traditional models—rooted in equilibrium and rational actors — ignore the unpredictable realities of human behavior. Complexity economics instead uses big data and agent-based simulations to mirror millions of messy decisions, revealing patterns in markets and policies. Central banks are already deploying these tools to forecast housing busts and pandemic shocks with uncanny accuracy. Farmer envisions an economic “Google Maps” where policymakers and companies test strategies in advance, navigating inequality, climate change, and the energy transition with greater foresight.
Abstract geometric landscape, early 20th century style. Public domain.