Closure Fears vs Reality
Predictions of mass campus closures return like clockwork. Huron’s forecast that 370 private colleges may shut or merge within a decade recalls earlier alarms, yet the record shows a slower pace. From 2010 to 2020, only 114 private nonprofits closed, and in 2024 just 15 did, about 1% of the sector, affecting 0.1% of students. Many were small religious or art schools undone by mismanagement rather than demographics. During the pandemic, federal relief of more than 75 billion dollars kept hundreds afloat. As noted in earlier posts on retention and job market shocks, colleges remain at risk, but history cautions against overstating collapse.