Cycles vs. the Cliff
The enrollment cliff in higher education points to a projected 15–20% drop in college-aged students around 2029, driven by the 2008 birth decline (Higher Education Demand Index). Yet history shows the economy matters too. When consumer confidence falls, enrollment rises; when confidence soars, enrollment softens. I made this chart showing observed enrollment (blue), HEDI demographic projections (orange), and the inverse Consumer Confidence Index (green). Demographics define the long‑run slope, but recessions blunt the cliff while expansions steepen it. Focusing only on shrinking cohorts misses the countercyclical pull. What will happen next if another downturn blunts the cliff?
